Thursday, May 05, 2005

The L Word

To call someone a liar is almost universally unhelpful in a debate, and is unable to persuade anyone about your position... unless of course it is demonstrably and indisputably true that the person is lying.

I'm afraid the president has clearly crossed that line. His statements on social securities solvency are a lie. In his so-called town meetings, he has repeatedly said that in 2041, the social security system is "flat broke", "it's out", "bankrupt", and there will be "nothing left". He has also advanced and repeated the view "People say, 'Well, I'm more likely to see a UFO than I am a Social Security check if I'm 35 and under.'" He is trying to give the clear impression, if not stating outright, that if nothing is done americans will receive no social security benefits in the future.

These statements are demonstrably false. The president is deliberately obfuscating the difference between the trust fund and the system as a whole, which will continue to take in revenue from workers and pay out benefits. By the most conservative estimates of the social security trustees, if absolutely nothing is done the system will continue to pay out benefits at 70% of that which have been promised after 2041. The CBO puts the figure at closer to 80%, and not until after 2052. Both these payout figures are payout levels higher than today's after inflation.

I'm sure if you polled people leaving these events, and asked them will social security be 100% dead in the future if we do nothing, the vast majority would agree. That is more than just misleading, it's a lie.

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